From Risk to Resilience: Northern Pakistan’s Path Forward Against Climate Disasters:
Shishper Glacier in Hassanabad, active since 2017, has devastated much of the valley along both sides of the stream.
Hassanabad disaster has left homes, roads, and livelihoods devastated. Photo by Zafar Abbas
By: Salmanuddin Shah
Northern Pakistan faces an escalating threat from climate-related disasters. Since July 22, 2025, flash floods, riverine floods, glacier bursts, cloudbursts, and landslides have devastated communities across Gilgit-Baltistan, claiming numerous lives, with many still missing. The region’s infrastructure—including roads, water channels, drinking water systems, and electricity networks—has been heavily damaged, while private properties such as agricultural land, homes, crops, trees, and small businesses have been destroyed.
These disasters are not isolated. According to the Climate Risk Index 2025, Pakistan ranked first globally as the country most affected by extreme weather events in 2022, largely due to catastrophic floods and heatwaves. Reports from Germanwatch (2021) and the United Nations indicate climate-related losses exceeding $29 billion, primarily from recurring floods, droughts, heatwaves, and glacial melt, with the 2022 super floods alone causing $30 billion in damages. Despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions, Pakistan remains among the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. The Global Climate Risk Index 2025 further notes that Pakistan experiences climate-related economic losses of over 1% of its GDP annually, highlighting the chronic vulnerability of its population.
Mountain regions, particularly Gilgit-Baltistan, face even higher risks. Communities here are directly exposed to hazards such as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), snow avalanches, flash floods, and landslides. Recent incidents—including glacier bursts and unprecedented flash floods—have been catastrophic, particularly across Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). For instance, a glacier burst in Gulmit triggered flash floods that swept away homes, farms, and a 45-year-old bridge on the Karakoram Highway, underscoring the disaster’s intensity. Similarly, the advancing Shishper Glacier in Hassanabad, active since 2017, has devastated much of the valley along both sides of the stream.
Pakistan is home to over 7,000 glaciers, with more than 5,000 located in Gilgit-Baltistan. In Hunza and Nagar districts alone, over 20 glaciers pose ongoing threats due to abnormal activity influenced by climate change. Local reports indicate over 30 GLOF or glacier-related events in Hunza over the past five years, including some during winter, signaling unusual glacial behavior. Glaciers such as Shishper, Batura, Khurdopin, and Malungutti, along with newly formed glacier lakes, are closely monitored. Their abnormal activity threatens not only nearby populations but also downstream communities along rivers in Hunza, Nagar, Gilgit, and Diamer, affecting thousands of residents.
Recent years have also seen more extreme temperatures, intense rainfall, and prolonged dry spells across parts of Gilgit-Baltistan and Chitral, triggering snow avalanches, heatwaves, cloudbursts, torrential rains, flash floods, riverine floods, and landslides. Since 2010, over 500 climate-related events have been recorded, causing loss of life, displacement, property destruction, and stalling local development. Hazard assessments indicate that nearly 30% of Gilgit-Baltistan’s population is at immediate or medium risk from climate disasters, with many settlements requiring urgent relocation.
Addressing climate vulnerability in northern Pakistan requires urgent institutional reform, scientific monitoring, and community engagement. Key recommendations include:
- The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs), established after the 2005 earthquake, have traditionally focused on emergency response. A shift is now needed toward long-term resilience, emphasizing risk reduction, climate-sensitive development, and “build back better” strategies.
- A specialized body in Gilgit-Baltistan should develop a comprehensive disaster strategy including high-altitude search and rescue, cryosphere assessments, disaster risk modeling, early warning systems, and mitigation planning, while integrating the impacts of ongoing infrastructure and development projects. The authority should monitor glacier behavior, glacial lake formation, and the risks posed by advancing glaciers, which threaten lives, property, and critical infrastructure. Implementation should involve coordination between the federal government, civil society, and the international community.
- The Gilgit-Baltistan Development Plan should be revised to ensure all projects are climate-risk sensitive, sustainable, and incorporate resilient habitat planning at the local level. This approach will reduce unsustainable development pressures on natural resources and protect communities from future hazards.
- Non-governmental organizations should be supported, particularly in replicating community-based disaster management models, such as those implemented by the Aga Khan Agency for Habitat, to enhance local preparedness, response, and recovery capacities.
By combining institutional reform, scientific monitoring, resilient development planning, and community engagement, northern Pakistan can reduce the devastating human, social, and economic impacts of climate disasters. With proactive policies, strategic planning, and international collaboration, the lives and livelihoods of thousands of residents in Gilgit-Baltistan and surrounding mountain regions can be safeguarded for generations to come.
