Climate Change-Induced Dual Disasters: GLOFs and Cloudburst Floods Threaten Gilgit-Baltistan
By Karim Muhammad Khan
Gilgit-Baltistan is undergoing an existential threat from climate change-led dual catastrophes, i.e., Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) and cloudburst-induced floods. The persistent and widespread heat anomaly, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, is intensifying the rate of snow and glacier melt in Gilgit-Baltistan, as the maximum temperature rises 7 to 9 degrees Celsius above normal values. Similarly, the minimum temperatures are also about 7 to 9°C above their normal values.
Decades earlier, glaciers were melting normally and were stable, but now extreme heat waves trigger excessive melting of glaciers by feeding, swelling, and bursting lakes at higher altitudes in the region. Satellite and field-based data have identified more than fifty glaciated lakes posing significant threats to downstream settlements. Some of them have already wreaked havoc on various settlements, agrarian land, and essential infrastructure in Hassanabad Hunza, Nagar, Gulmit Gojal, Roushan Gupis, Shigar, Ganche, Diamer, and Baltistan division.
God forbid, if the current heat anomaly continues to intensify glacier melt in the years to come, it could wipe out glaciers located at relatively lower altitudes from the HKH ranges, leaving the entire region water-stressed since 70 percent of the Indus River is fed by glacier melt water. Alongside GLOF events, the heat wave anomaly has also accelerated the hydrological cycle, as seen in frequent cloudburst floods in different valleys of GB, KPK, and AJK that caused huge losses to human life with widespread devastation. A cloudburst is characterized by an extremely high rainfall rate exceeding 100 mm (4 inches) per hour, usually occurring within a small geographical area of around 20 to 30 sq km.
The recent cloudburst-induced flash floods in Dain, Chatorkhand, Assumber, and Sholja villages in Ghizer District have caused significant devastation. Flash floods swept through the villages, resulting in loss of life, destruction of homes, and damage to infrastructure. In Ghizer District alone, nine people were reported to have lost their lives due to cloudburst-induced flooding. In addition, cloudburst-led floods also blocked the Ishkoman River and swept away the longest wooden bridge spanning 622 feet. It was the only jeepable bridge connecting around 15,000 people with the region’s markets, educational institutions, healthcare centers, and hospitals.
Meanwhile, the terrible GLOF event in Roushan Nala swept through Talidass village and buried thirty homes completely, but not a single life was lost due to early warning by shepherds followed by timely evacuation. However, the blocked Ghizer River turned into an eight-kilometer-long lake upstream, submerging hundreds of residential houses, standing crops, schools, agrarian land, shops, community centers, and mosques.
The Federal Government must declare a climate emergency in GB by providing immediate relief goods and services such as food, shelter, clean drinking water, and medical assistance to the flood-affected people in different valleys of the region. Restoring damaged infrastructure, including roads, bridges, irrigation channels, clean drinking water, and power supply, needs to be carried out on a war footing. Next, the rehabilitation of Internally Displaced People (IDPs) needs a comprehensive plan with joint efforts by pulling resources from different sources. Philanthropists and donors should come forward to rehabilitate the IDPs and help flood-affected students by providing necessary items such as school bags, uniforms, books, and notebooks, and by establishing tent schools where needed.
In addition, as a long-term plan, hazard areas need to be identified by developing hazard mapping of each village/town/city with the help of high-resolution satellite images and field-based data. Settlement areas can be classified using color codes such as red for high risk, yellow for moderate risk, and green for safe zones. Similarly, categorization of the most dangerous, moderately dangerous, and safe glaciers and lakes at higher altitudes should not only be identified but continuously monitored, as rising temperatures are impacting glaciers and their lakes with far-reaching consequences downstream.
Next, disaster risk reduction strategies should be developed and executed as per the level of hazards in collaboration with local communities, volunteers, and other key stakeholders. The good news is that joint efforts by the community, government agencies, different non-governmental organizations, donors, and civil society are coming together to help flood-affected families bounce back from their sufferings courageously. Pakistan Army and other security agencies are also playing a critical role in rescue and relief activities in the flood-hit zones of the region.
However, a long-term comprehensive disaster management plan is still lacking on the part of the state and its operators. For instance, under the GLOF-II project, installation of Early Warning Systems and other measures have badly failed to save lives and properties of the flood-affected people. Instead, local people and shepherds played a vital role in saving hundreds of lives by informing them early before the calamity hit downstream settlements.
Nevertheless, the responsibility of protecting lives and properties and alleviating suffering rests on the shoulders of the rulers, since they are the representatives of the people who elected them. They have taken an oath in the name of Allah the Almighty to serve their constituency selflessly. Therefore, to make long-term planning and policies work for the rehabilitation of flood-affected families across the region, the ruling elites should exercise their authority judiciously and honestly by keeping work efficiency, transparency, equity, and accountability on top of their priority. Leaders become prominent and revered not because of their status and power but because of their extraordinary selfless services rendered to alleviate human suffering.
