Beyond Glacial Melt
Gilgit-Baltistan, often termed the “Third Pole” due to its extensive glacial reservoirs, is experiencing a climate crisis that is rapidly evolving in both scale and complexity. While glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and major landslides, such as those at Attabad and Shisper Glacier, have historically captured attention, a more frequent and insidious threat is now endangering communities which is the lethal synergy between cloudbursts, thawing permafrost, and the formation of dangerous debris-dammed lakes. This summer of 2025 relentless disasters redefine the course that old preparedness models are no longer sufficient.
A cloudburst is a sudden, extreme rainfall event in which high amounts of precipitation often equivalent to months of rain fall in just a few hours over a small area. In the steep, narrow valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan, such intense rainfall quickly triggers flash floods and debris flows, meaning little to no time for evacuation. But what makes these events even more dangerous is the changing geology beneath the surface called permafrost.
Permafrost is the layer of soil, sediment, or rock that remains frozen for at least two years and it is fundamental to slope stability in high mountain regions. It acts as nature’s binder as it holds rugged terrain together. However, rising land temperatures are causing this frozen ground to thaw at an alarming rate. In my recent research conducted on Badswat Glacier, it indicated that the stable permafrost line has now receded above 4,300 meters in summer. This is especially alarming since many glaciers lie within this elevation range. As the permafrost diminishes, slopes become unstable and set the stage for large-scale landslides and rockfalls.
When a cloudburst saturates these already weakened slopes, the results are catastrophic. Massive volumes of rock, soil, and vegetation are swept into the valleys. In the narrow confines of these landscapes, this material often chokes river channels and form natural but highly unstable debris-dammed lakes. We have witnessed this destructive phenomenon repeatedly in Raoshan, Dain, and Badswat villages, where such blockages submerged homes and fertile land under rising water. These temporary lakes pose a dual threat; first, the immediate inundation upstream, and second, the looming risk of a sudden outburst that can release a devastating flash flood downstream and put entire valleys at risk.
We are no longer facing isolated hazards, rather we are witnessing cascading events where one disaster amplifies another. This multi-hazard reality is what makes forecasting and early warning so difficult. Conventional weather models operate at too broad a scale to detect micro-climatic triggers like cloudbursts, while our disaster management frameworks remain tailored to single hazards, not complex chains of risk.
To enhance community resilience and save lives, we must adopt an integrated approach focused on three critical actions. First, invest in hyper-local monitoring. This means installing high-resolution radar and automated weather stations in high-risk valleys to detect cloudburst precursors and monitor slope stability in real time. Second, combine technology with traditional knowledge. Community-based observation networks trained to recognize signs of imminent collapse or intense localized rainfall can provide ground-level intelligence that technology might miss. Third, and most importantly, develop detailed multi-hazard risk maps. These maps must integrate data on glacier coverage, permafrost stability, historical cloudburst paths, debris flow trajectories, and human settlement to identify areas at greatest risk. Such tools are indispensable for land-use planning, infrastructure resilience, and designing effective evacuation protocols.
The people of Gilgit-Baltistan have displayed remarkable resilience in the face of recurring disasters. But courage is not a substitute for preparedness. It is imperative that provincial and national authorities prioritize updated, science-based risk assessments and early warning systems that reflect new climate realities. Only through proactive, multi-hazard planning can we protect vulnerable communities from the converging threats of a changing mountains cape.
The time to act is now. The storms will not wait for our policies to catch up.
