[Analysis] Water spilling out, but not fast enough

by AMN

The narrow spillway constructed by Frontier Works Organization is giving way to only a small volume of water to pass through, draining the lake at a very slow pace. Experts opine that the limbo is likely to continue for at least seven days. While the amount of water discharging through the spillway has increased to around 250 Cusecs as of 2 O’clock on Monday afternoon, it is not large enough to leave impact on villages in the upstream areas.

Water keeps rising at 1-inch per hour in the upstream areas sinking larger chunks of land, including houses and other critical infrastructure.

6 more houses were dismantled in Goze locality of Gulmit village and others have been asked to leave their houses because of the threat posed to life and property.

Goze has been disconnected from rest of Gulmit, being covered by water from three sides.

The total number of households displaced in Gulmit is likely to increase up to 50 because of the new catastrophic situation.

4 more houses were dismantled in Shishkat, taking the total number of IDP households to around 115.

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  1. It is better not to take experts opinion on the situation as their opinion seems to be not that much of experts. So far not a single expert opinion has come true as the water has not paid any attention to the expert opinions and is taking its own course of action much to the disapproval of the experts. To avoid further confusion and frustration people should keep on eye on the situation themselves instead of misleading expert opinions.

  2. It may be a Long Walk Home

    This was expected that under the present plan the subject spillway/ barrier of Hunza River at Attabad will be eroded and a major water out flow of the lake may start soon but unfortunately this is not happening as expected.

    Keeping in view the long length of blockage of the barrier and nature of the surrounding hills, that by attempting any mechanical blasting to reduce the barrier; it is feared that hills prone to triggering further land sliding will start refilling the blocked mouth.

    Reportedly, the fresh water pouring in the lake is much higher than the small drain at spill way point. The expected erosion of 4 to 5 seepage point is also not working; thus the water in the lake keep on rising; engulfing more and more of upstream houses and villages.

    But it is most important that mechanical measures be under taken to induce the drainage of the water to at least purge the increase of fresh water level pouring in from the melting glaciers.

    Blasting of the barrier may be out of the question as it may trigger the further landslides and result in adding in the blockage. As suggested earlier artificial siphoning through large hoses may be the only solution to remain in control of the situation.

    At the same time effort for a secure excavation of barrier as well as enhancing the seepage point to facilitate the main drain of lake may be carried out to achieve the required results.

  3. All the oppinion and pridictions have failed. We could not say and rely on cofused opinions and experties. No experts ……….all so called experts are “Neeme Hakeem Khatra-e-Jan wo Mal”
    all was guess, Political statements and picnic trips to Hunz Gojal.

  4. Mr. Khokar

    Please stop posting illogical solutions: ” artificial siphoning through large hoses’.

    you must be joking and have no idea of the remoteness of this site

    Get serious . The volume of water in lake is over 500 million cubic meters.the length of barrier is more than 2000 meters. Please go and take Physics 101 again.

    To this suggestion of your Dr David Petley replied:

    “I dont think that the siphon / pump idea was ever practicable at this site, and certainly is not now. The height of the dam was too large, the location too remote, and the inflows too high.”

    so either demonstrate that he is wrong or stop posting this illogical solution of blogs.

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