South Asia Nuclear Dynamics
By Masooma Khatoon, Khanam Zehra
Nuclear flashpoints do exist at dangerous levels in South Asia. Global competition for resources and technological advances in China immensely complicate the ongoing struggle between India and Pakistan, which is more of a core conflict. The economic gap and emerging military strengths of both countries put a lower nuclear deterrent capability at risk. These aspects have once again been exposed in the 2025 India-Pakistan crisis.
Both India and Pakistan, using the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a crutch, have been modernizing their weapons since the 1998 nuclear tests. Even though India has maintained a sphere of minimum deterrence, Pakistan, in order to reduce the chances of nuclear warfare and counter India’s strengths, has been actively pursuing offensive policies. These lower the chances of nuclear warfare and increase the usage of nuclear weapons. The aggressive device based on China’s missile production with theoretical agendas destabilizes South Asia, alongside the growing pigeon stability effectively sustaining the region’s nuclear suicide doctrine.
The consequences of India, Pakistan, and China emerging as nuclear powers have led to an increased chance of conflict, where the possibility of a non-definable territory, including Kashmir, becoming a focus increases drastically. The intertwining of nuclear combat with cyber and space creates endless identitarian warfare. Mistakenly, without a clear move, the merging between the nations creates a highly volatile security risk. The merging of disputes can increase the chances for conflicts separating the nations.
In a bid to secure a second-strike capability, both India and Pakistan have enhanced their nuclear delivery systems, such as sea-based platforms, cruise missiles, and even longer-range ballistic missiles. Pakistan’s MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) technology and India’s Agni-V ICBM are prime examples of this arms race. Additionally, the incorporation of AI and autonomous systems into military functions introduces new command and control complexities that escalate the risk of inadvertent use. The 2025 crisis showcased how disproportionate conventional military forces, asymmetric wealth, and advancement in deterring military technologies profoundly shift the balance of conflict escalation.
Concern over proliferation deepens the already complex combination of factors defining the South Asian nuclear landscape. The infamous A.Q. Khan network exposed vulnerabilities and called into question non-state actors possessing nuclear materials and technology by allowing the transfer of nuclear technology beyond the region. The continuous threat from terrorist organizations seeking to obtain nuclear capabilities puts at risk international and regional nonproliferation regimes.
The Indo-U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement has received some focus on the dilemmas of nuclear proliferation without carefully attending to the possibility of diverting technology for weapons purposes and the development of nuclear energy for military use.
The subcontinental arms race profoundly influences multilateral security as well as international arms control. The absence of formal arms control treaties adds to already existing suspicions between India and Pakistan. Experts caution that in the absence of better trust-building communication channels, strategic restraint, and self-restraint, there is still a considerable threat of nuclear war.
Moreover, China, Russia, and the United States, as prominent powers that fall within the scope of the Indo-Pacific region, also shape the nuclear landscape in South Asia. While ASEAN’s active nuclear governance initiatives, alongside other regional collaboration frameworks supported by the global community, provide guidance for improving nuclear safety, challenges in South Asia do require specific solutions.
Regional power politics and the rivalry of superpowers strongly affect the current nuclear context of South Asia. Border terrorism, trade in weapons, and mutual suspicion have led to a deep freeze in relations between India and Pakistan.
From Pakistan’s perspective, China’s strategic aid has only worsened India’s perceived confidence in diplomacy. On the other hand, the India-China dyad remains relatively stable, owing to their shared no-first-use policies, despite a myriad of conflicts at the borders and longstanding territorial disputes stifling deeper integration.
India would seek to match Chinese capabilities, thus provoking Pakistan to follow suit, and these factors could trigger an arms race fueled by China’s nuclear modernization and competition with the U.S. Not all conflicts, owing to their complexity and deeply rooted nature, can be fully resolved. There is, however, a need to resume bilateral dialogue and adopt multilateral approaches focused on confidence-building frameworks to mitigate nuclear threats, enhance stability, and strengthen subcontinental security. This is a reasonable stance meant to prevent the use of nuclear weapons while recognizing the harsh security environment of South Asia.
