“Water from lake to come out on 17 April”, says Chairman NDMA, others doubt the statement
PT Report
Gilgit, April 1: Chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority, General Farooq, said that water from the disaster lake formed on River Hunza would spillover on April 17. He was talking to journalists at Gilgit after finishing his tour of Hunza – Gojal. He said that there is no food shortage in Gojal valley and the overwhelming demand of people he met is resolution of educational problems being faced by students of the region. The general, however, did not say what steps the government has taken to resolve the educational problems of the local people. He was accompanied by speaker GBLA, Wazir Baig.
Responding to a question about preparedness in the downstream areas in case of a lake outburst the retired army commander said that he has instructed the local administration to brief the local population in this regard.
Meanwhile Gilgit chapter of the Mutaseerin-e-Gojal Rabita Committee has termed the announcement of general Farooq to be nothing more than an April fool joke. “The distance from surface of lake to the potential spillway point is 120 feet still. We don’t know what strategy the government has in mind for achieving this level of excavation within two weeks”, Ghulam Nasir of the committee told Pamir Times.
In a press release received by Pamir Times the committee has termed the recent visit a purposeless recreational tour taken in the name of listening to the local people. “The so-called leaders can’t face the local people and organize clandestine visits to avoid public wrath”, the press release reads.
The committee has condemned the uninformed visits by former and new elected representatives of Gojal – Hunza.
People should not travel after 15th April to 15th June as there are chances of outburst of lake.
There is no chance of extreme out brust,,because the width of the formed embankment is more than approx. 700 meters (.7km). As on daily basis new seepage paths are being developed, which reduces the spilling discharge. At initial stages, some flood type will flow, but later on gradually this flooding discharge quantity will increase based on increase in erosion and formation of gorge.
Infact, there is risk of gradually increasing flood flow, which will affect the basin areas and river catchment areas.
Water at new seepage point appears to be flowing under pressure, which is a worry. Seepage is much lower then the inflows
Location 1: 500 litres per second
Location 2: 40 to 55 litres per second
Location 3: 15 litres per second
Inflow 29,500 litres per second
Upcoming disaster is inevitable 🙁
Engg Farman;
I strongly advice you to read the reports of experts who have studied the Attabad landlside. You can read the whole report of Dr Petley (link is available on Pamir times ). There is continued risk of dam failure.
I do not know from where Gen Farooq sb (NDMA Chairman) is giving that flow over spillway will start from 17th April (un-less he has some secret information?).Looking at the slow rate of debris removal and rate of water rise,logic and simple calculation can project that flow over spillway “may” happen after end April more close to mid May (that is 🙁 i )if dam does not fail before that;(ii) there no substantial increase in water inflow in the river lake ;(iii) the cut rate per day in spilway does not substantially increased ie more machines are employed by FWO etc).
What I suggest is we all should be prepared for the worst and pray for the best.We should be continuously alert. Local Governemnt/ GB NDMA should give an honest briefing to the people about the situation.
@Hafiz Shah Ali, let me put in this way,,,at initial stages the extreme outbrust will never happen, shortly at later stages as a result of erosion and formation of gorage, the flooding wave will increase, infact it will accumilate larger area and significant levels at down stream. It,s extremely important that the the people living at down stream significantly residing at lower levels must infomed and measures must be made to counter the situation.
Engg. Farman: Sorry I do not agree with you.
I have seen some dam outburst modelling that has been done by International experts in UK on behalf of FOCUS. They are projecting a potential flood wave as high as 60 meters.
We all people should put our energies in creating awareness in people of the area to evacuate on warning signal from FOCUS Early Warning System and the Governemnt .We all should pray that there is minimum damage to life and property. may Allah protect us all.
. Change is the only constant and so is true of identities as well. Living in a world of ideological flux identities are like vapors to be diffused into the thin air. The new world as we know today is a cauldron where identities melt to find new expression. The parts (local cultural identities) interact profusely yet with no set patterns to form a new whole which is by no means equal to its parts. However because of the inner strains of temporal and spatial (derived from time and space) and universalizing agents of globalization new local identities are also emerging which are different from our conventional understanding of traditional identities.
When disaster hit the upper Hunza we invoked our conventional mindset to associate disaster with our traditional identity and hence we localized the disaster and owned it. The debate today is more of owing disaster than finding remedies and some of us were quick to reduce it to Gojal disaster….fair enough in geographical terms but the underlying thinking patterns are less geographical in nature and more it is a way of reasserting an identity that is being withered away by forces which we do not have control over. What an irony!
This may be not be a right time to enter into a cultural debate but the awaiting disaster because of the clash between cultural fanaticism and delocalizing forces may lead our society towards even a bigger disaster. We have to come out of our nostalgic affiliations as there is nothing pure or impure in accepting the new realties and reshaping our collective selves into a fresh world of ideas rather than enslaving our thinking souls to the skeletons of the past. The phenomenon of self aggrandizement is misfortunate indeed and this self proclaimed cultural piety has engulfed not only Hunza but most of Gilgit-Baltistan…….we seem to be un-evolved tribal bands forced into modernity..-thinkingly, unconvincingly and unwillingly. There is a war between our tribal instincts and the specter of modernity not because the modernity is a vicious process but more because we are trying to hold back the advancing of history …….which is doomed to be a failure. We must be critical of modernity but alas! We are facially modern and intellectually tribal and hence we are unable to negotiate with the ever changing nature of history. Our generations will not forgive us if we engage in a lilupitian politics …a politics of petty matters in the garb of nostalgically defined and static identities.
Have we ever thought of cumulative adverse impact of development process which also reshaped our cultural sense during the last three to four decades? Construction of KKH that fed dynamite into our rocks which in geological times were not developed enough to sustain the burden of explosive material. Construction of water channels by AKRSP without environmental impact assessment added salt to injuries which also reduced development to the shenanigans of modern engineering….human, biological and social environments remain the least prioritized areas. We should question these factors of man- made disaster which could easily be controlled. Rather than engaging in a debate of cultural piety and stagnant identity we should ponder upon the broad-based issues that plunged the area into destruction and Heavens forbid if we do not address these issues today we will no more be there to lament our lost glories. Let us pledge to change ourselves and let us be the beacon of light for our coming generations.
@The anti khamito – If you have ever travelled with our green passport you might have seen that people do not make mistake in identifying the identity and in the subsequent treatment accordingly……
There is no chance of spillover of the water from the lake on April 17, 2010 .The FOCUS monitoring team is there from the day first and and they are closely monitoring the situation of the lake according to them the discharge of water is will be start from May 20,2010 ,in the beginning of the disaster Mr Farooq was given this type of statement that the discharge of water will start with in a month but after three months period the situation is the same ,how is it possible that the water in the lake will cross 100 feet in 16 days because inflow of the water in the lake is very less 1.5 feet per day.
ye gernal sb ki akhiri jhot hai
ive read all the comments including engineer…em astudent of geophysics n frm my experience a lake cn b stoped by making tributries… but i cnt say smthing abt the making of dam …
can anybody tel me the advantages of this lake … ive presentation on it … do mail me basharat_hja@yahoo.com…..