Conflicting figures about water discharge through spillway

PT Report

Gilgit, June 3: The data available on water passing through the spillway at Hunza River lake is conflicting and confusing.

According to NDMA Chairman the water flow at Ganish Bridge is around 2100 Cusecs. Subtracting water inflow from small torrents and water channels, it can be said based on NDMA data, that at least 1900 Cusecs of water is being discharge from the lake. Taking the water flow through seepages at around 350 would take volume of water discharge per second through the spillway to around 1550 Cusecs. If true this would indicate a significant single day jump of around 600 Cusecs in the discharge rate.

However, according to other sources, water discharge through the spillway is around 1150 Cusecs while the seepage discharge is around 350 Cusecs, taking the cumulative discharge to around 1500 Cusecs.

The amount of erosion has also increased according to reports and increased pressure on the barrier might destabilize it and lead to dam breach within a relatively shorter span of time. Next 24 hours have been termed as highly critical for stability of the dam.

Public circles have demanded more coordination between institutions monitoring the lake to avoid confusion and misinformation.

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  1. NDMA has been confusing the entire country since the very first day of this incident. The star-holders of NDMA are passing some of the worse political statements of our times since the very first day of this incident. Therefore, their figure could not be taken as reliable one. I wonder where does the readings of leaser equipments go? I also wonder if the “experts” of NAPWD are skilled enough to operate and take correct readings of any sort of leaser-guided system… I know that they break down the simple computer operated powerhouse machines just for the reason that they are unable to read and understand any error message and operation commands….

  2. Is there any information on lake level rise? Or better, the absolute elevation of the lake surface? The contained volume of the lake depends on the lake level. The magnitude of any possible outburst flood (the peak discharge and duration and distance downstream that it travels) depends on lake volume and lake depth at the dam. And if the lake is to drain peacefully, the critical period of draw-down of lake level and the “pressure” exerted on the dam’s spillway will depend lake level and volume. This is important information that has no longer been reported, according to the sources I have seen. The Pamir Times now seems to be the main information source.

  3. Dear Noor
    you are right Government change his statement always so why not NDMA .he is also
    part of Pakistan Government. I don’t know what will happen next
    we all are only relyon your news I mean pamir times
    so please keep us updating
    we all knows that pamir times is the only updated news
    thank you for this grate work

  4. There could be number of factors leading to these differences:

    1)Time of measurement. Measurements taken in morning,mid day and evening will have different numbers due a large number of resons mainly rate of glacial melt which is high in day time.
    2) Place of measurement; NDMA is using measurements at Ganish bridge .These measurements will include water from seepage,discharge and small nallahs(torrents). I hv no idea where PWD is taking measurements or where FOCUS is taking measurements. I would rely on FOCUS data as they have 4-5 geologist on site .
    3) My guess is all organisations are estimating the flow as physical data measurement is dangerous and not possible.

    What we need to get seriously worried about is large volume of water that is there in the lake. Now it must be over 500-550 million cubic meters.

    We request Chairman NDMA to contact expert like Dr Dave Petley to get his advice. He has visit the site and done detail report.

  5. Express News ne aik story air ki thi . . . NDMA ki efficiency* per ki wo aik NUCLEAR POWER ki aisi org hy jo 2010 mei water flow ki correct calculation nahi ker paa rahi . .
    GEO/EXPRESS/DUNIA/AAJ/DAWN/ARY ETC. ko 5 months se mei monitor ker raha hun es issue pe. . . . shayd hee kabi kisi ne WATER FLOW ki aik calculation di ho . . . keep in mind. . . ye calculation wo NDMA se le ker detey hain . . . or NDMA iti efficient* thi ki . . . dandi or jhandey laga ker andazay laga rahe hain 🙂

    anyways . . es news story ke baad lagta hy ki kuch gairat agai GENERAL NADEEM ko . . . . 5 months se wo channey baich raha tha . . . .

    es video mei FOCUS wale bi nazar arahe houngey . . . FOCUS AKDN ke saath kaam kerta hy . . . or jab hamari awaam/gov/army or media sab so rahay thay tab se active hy . . JAN 2010 se (

  6. Thanks PT for your contineuous updates.

    Anyhow like from the very begining of this stupid disaster the authorities and so called experts are providing poluted figuers about the debth, length, time period, inflow, out flow, etc. just like a layman’s observations and still lgoing on like the same…

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