Yet another deadline for opening of the lake ends
PT Report
Gilgit, April 15: Chairman of the NDMA, General Farooq, had announced a few weeks back that water from the lake formed on Hunza River will be drained out by April 17. As anticipated by informed circles then the publicly promised deadline could not be honored.
According to NDMA website over 167 000 cubic meters of landslide debris has been excavated so far out of the 196 000 targeted. The excavation work being carried out by FWO is expected to reduce height of the lake barrier by 30 meters. However, the NDMA website does not provide any information about the height reduction.
Informed sources have told Pamir Times that after reaching the targeted height reduction FWO might consider further excavation if the situation allows.
Chairman NDMA Gen. Farooq made this statement without any basis or evidence. .Good he is gone–retired. KKH is still blocked since 4th Jan 2010
We hope the new Chairman will be more cooperative and work with NGOs/communities in spirit of collaboration. We hope that the new Chairman will make communities in Pakistan more resilient to natural disasters.NGOs/INGOS will fully support new Chairman in interest of country
FWO has stated that they plan to touch excavation of 196,000 cu meters .The excavation has hit boulders and due to weather conditions, the rate of excavation would be slower than 2000 cu meters average they have been achieving.Assuming the excavation continues to achieve 2000 cu meters per day,it will take about 15 more days to achieve the target of 196,000 cu meters. BUT if I re-call in one briefing FWO person has say that they will leave 10 meters free board and then allow water level to rise and over flow (ie if dam barrier does not fail) .water is raising about 1.3 feet per day so it will take about (3.28 feet= 1 meter) 25 additional days for water to flow. There are lot of assumptions: that free board of 10 meters will be reached in 15 days; water will continue to rise by 1.3 feet per day, lake size will not expand resulting in less or more increase in river height; there is no massive seepage(piping) which can result in dam failure; there is no regional earthquake in area that could trigger dam failure etc.
Dr David Petley of International Landslide Center at University of Durham has started a Attabad Landslide monitoring site which is frequently updated–it is very interesting;
http://hunzalandslide.blogspot.com/
Keep them honest, PT!