Unseasonal Snowfall: A Growing Crisis in Gilgit-Baltistan
By Safdar Ali Safdar
An avalanche blocking the road to Phander recently left thousands of residents stranded for days, cutting off access to food, medical supplies, and other essentials. Similar disruptions have been reported in Astore, Nagar, and Baltistan, where heavy snowfall and avalanches have severely impacted daily life. These events are part of a growing trend of unseasonal snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), raising serious concerns among communities, farmers, and climate experts. These extreme weather events suggest that nature is attempting to self-correct and rebalance the climate. However, human interventions have disrupted this delicate balance. Considering these changing climate patterns, it’s essential to develop policies and plans that address climate-related hydro-meteorological events.
Snowfall in GB traditionally occurs from late November to February. However, in recent years, heavy snow has been reported well into March and April, disrupting seasonal patterns. The region also recently experienced an unprecedented cold wave, with average minimum temperatures dropping to -8°C, breaking a decade-long record. Residents accustomed to gradual warming in spring now face unpredictable weather, affecting agriculture, transportation, and disaster risk.
One reason for late snowfall is sudden drops in temperature due to cold waves. While spring usually signals warming, these cold air masses push southward, triggering snow in high-altitude areas like Hunza, Nagar, Baltistan, Ghizer, and Astore. This irregular temperature cycle is part of a broader climatic shift observed in the Karakoram region.
The unique geography of GB also plays a role. Many valleys, particularly those above 2,500 meters, experience a microclimate where snow lingers well into spring. Areas like Khunjerab, Deosai, Shimshal, Shandur, and Hispar remain snow-covered due to their proximity to glaciers, which continuously influence local weather patterns.
Climate change is further intensifying these shifts. Global warming is disrupting seasonal cycles, sometimes bringing milder winters and harsher spring cold spells. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified the Himalayas and Karakoram as particularly vulnerable to such anomalies due to their fragile ecosystems and rapid glacier changes.
These weather shifts are already impacting agriculture. GB’s orchards—famous for apricots, cherries, apples, and almonds—rely on stable spring temperatures for flowering and fruit production. Later snowfall damages blossoms, reducing yields and threatening the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. Recent studies show that climate variability is shortening the growing season and increasing risks for local agriculture.
Road blockages caused by unexpected snowfall have also become a major concern. Key routes like the Karakoram Highway (KKH) and Skardu Road frequently close due to landslides and avalanches, isolating communities and disrupting trade. The closure of Babusar Top and Khunjerab Pass affects both tourism and commerce, making life even harder for those in remote valleys.
Another risk is the increased likelihood of avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Fresh snowfall in spring, combined with fluctuating temperatures, destabilizes snowpacks and accelerates glacier melt. This can lead to sudden floods, endangering settlements near rivers and steep slopes.
According to a report by the Gilgit-Baltistan government, between June 30, 2022, and August 26, 2022, 14 people died due to floods and rains, while 3 were reported injured. The report also mentions that private properties worth over 4 billion rupees have been destroyed by various natural disasters in the Gilgit-Baltistan region alone. This includes 383 fully damaged houses and 257 partially damaged “pakka” houses.
Fifty-two bridges have also been destroyed, causing financial losses worth 360 million rupees, according to the report. Of these destroyed bridges, 43 have been partially restored. Other public infrastructure damaged includes 22 powerhouses, 49 roads, 78 potable water supply lines, and over 500 irrigation water channels.
The total losses suffered by Gilgit-Baltistan during the last few months are estimated at over 7 billion rupees.
With unseasonal snowfall becoming more frequent, proactive measures are needed. Improved weather forecasting, disaster preparedness, climate-resilient agriculture, and better infrastructure are crucial to help communities adapt. Policymakers must invest in early warning systems, road maintenance, and sustainable development to mitigate the impacts of this changing climate.
As Gilgit-Baltistan navigates these challenges, it is essential to recognize that climate change is not a distant threat—it is already reshaping daily life in the mountains. Addressing these issues through scientific research and informed policymaking will be key to ensuring a stable and sustainable future for the region.
