Islamabad: Northern Pakistan is experiencing an unusual surge in temperatures, raising concerns about accelerated glacier melt and the growing risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs), according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
The weather authority reported that from 1 to 22 February, daytime temperatures across Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir remained significantly above seasonal norms. Maximum temperatures were recorded between 3°C and 5°C above average, while minimum temperatures stayed 1°C to 3.5°C higher than the 1981–2010 climatological baseline.
The warming trend has been particularly pronounced in Gilgit and Bunji. Meanwhile, Chilas and Bunji have also experienced elevated nighttime temperatures, limiting the natural overnight refreezing process that typically helps stabilise snow and ice.
Meteorological experts attribute the temperature spike to a prolonged spell of clear skies and reduced precipitation across the region. Sustained above-normal temperatures, they warn, are intensifying snow and glacier melt, particularly at mid- and lower-altitude zones.
Reduced nighttime cooling is further accelerating meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. As water accumulates in moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes, the likelihood of sudden outburst floods in downstream valleys increases significantly.
Vulnerable areas including Hunza, Ghizer, Astore, Chilas and Gilgit have been advised to remain vigilant in the coming weeks.
The PMD said it is closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier melt conditions, and other hydrometeorological indicators, and will continue issuing timely advisories to relevant authorities and local communities to help mitigate potential risks.
