4 Cusecs water passing through the spillway

The moment of sigh of relief for the entire upstream population. This was a tiny landslide which was turned into a nightmare of disaster by our own government lead by our own representatives.

This was a sheer ignorance on the part of the leadership. I am sure, it was will-fully let to happen with us by the FWO people with the dream of financial gains in terms of billions of rupees in contract for reconstruction. I have heard people saying that some powerful elements bent on sectarian bases are jealous of the progress.

But what is more frustrating is Mr. Wazir Baig’s attitude throughout these five months, he was never heard sympathizing with the affected people rather he made people mad with his disgusting statements to turn Gojal into dam to conserve water for generating electricity, relocating the people of Gojal somewhere else which is more economical then construction of spill way. etc.

Purhaps the people of Gojal made a mistake to read the PPP, they did not know it is a Zardari Party and the PPP was also assassinated with Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed. This Party (post BB) is led by the able Mehdi Shah, whose loyalty was judged since the first day of the disaster.

Mr. Wazir Baig may have won the heart of Mr. Zardari and Mehdi Shah but the people of Gojal are not going to see his face for the second time. I request my fellow Gojali brother to boycott him for the rest of his life. He is our destroyer and should not let him to step on the soil of Gojal.

Alhamdulillah

Attabad Dam out Burst; Red Alert

Reportedly the expected over topping (over flowing) of the spillway have started at a very low rate and hopefully all the access glacial water pouring into lake at its tail which is extended to some 8 to 10 mile upstream—- will result in a move of water in the lake. This move may result into more erosion along the length of lake.

At the spillway it’s soil is not compact but is loose in nature and once the loose clay found in between the big boulders stuck in the blockages is eroded by the water flow—-more water will start flowing through them which may result in shifting of boulders as well as debris thus causing an exceptional sudden outburst any time soon.

Even at this stage in order to control the drainage of lake it is highly recommended that
to prevent the downstream destruction by sudden outburst of lake dam; an adequate water draining arrangements by laying the mega poly pipes or other flexi hose artificial Siphons System along the spillway may be the only solution to avail a controlled drain of the lake as well as prevent the downstream damages that it may cause to the life and properties of people and endangering the mega structure of Tarbela Dam.

Dear Hafiz Shah Ali and friends,

The experts may differ but this is believed that artificial drainage of this lake presents a rare opportunity to actively reduce the potential for a natural disaster caused by destructive water. Other failure mechanisms may include seepage and other holes which may also result in rapid collapse of dam and marking it most destructive events which have been documented throughout the world on other sites.

The above comments were submitted with the reference to the case Study of ‘Draining Himalayan Glacial Lakes before they Burst’ which says that many catastrophic floods have occurred in the Himalaya when a dam of moraine like we have here that a spillway barrier is formed of loose contents of mud, clay and boulders; that under the pressure and volume of water may fail suddenly and release massive amounts of water that is stored in the lake.

Such outburst floods may prove far more destructive. As a means of reducing the risk of catastrophe from this lake, a simple siphon technique is proposed which has proved to be the most successful in reducing the water level. Although this approach appears to be relatively effective, practical, inexpensive and safe, but it does have a substantial risk of seismic events generated by rock avalanches and land slide as we had earlier into the lake that then a massive wave generated by land slide may overtop the dam and rapidly erode the outflow channel, ultimately resulting into collapsing the spill way barrier with it.

The downstream valley extending to even Tarbela dam may remain highly unstable for months to years after the initial event. The destructive potential of an outburst flood may depend on: the total volume of water released; the magnitude and duration of release, which depend on the lake dam failure situation; river slope and width and variations in these characteristics along the channel; the amount and size of erodible material in the dam area and downstream. It also depend upon the resistance of the channel and valley sides to erosion and landslides; the location of people at the time of the event; and location of houses, structures, trails and bridges relative to the flood itself and resultant landslides.

Attenuation of the flood wave also influences the extent of damage downstream and is affected by channel conditions, landslide activity, and entrainment of debris.

Regards