It is likely this cracking was caused by a damaging earthquake, that had occurred at the junction of the Astor Valley with the Indus Valley on the 16th November 2002 (E 74°.45” N35°.30”). The earthquake had a magnitude of Ms 6.5 and was preceded by many significant foreshocks and manymajor aftershocks have continued now for several months.
It is likely this cracking was caused by a damaging earthquake, that had occurred at the junction ofthe Astor Valley with the Indus Valley on the 16th November 2002 (E 74°.45” N35°.30”). Theearthquake had a magnitude of Ms 6.5 and was preceded by many significant foreshocks and many major aftershocks have continued now for several months.
The cracking the ground running up and around a large scree and boulder debris flow is a real natural landslide phenomena and a major cause for concern. The original crack width is getting locally larger but it appears not to be getting longer. It was a correct decision to move people away from the potential disaster area as there are no ways to stop a rotational landslide of the scale indicated by the crack plan. Monitoring the crack (with instrumentation) and the affected area locally (by observation of the environment) are the best ways forward for predicting a growing problem or noting a new stable situation. Management of the situation now would play a major role in efficient situation/disaster recovery. The first aim is to ensure that people safely live well away from below the area that would be affected, the second is to instigate safety systems for allowing for some continued use of the fieldsso essential for the well being of the villagers and the third is to have possessions and farming resources stored away from the area so there are minimal losses if the slope was to catastrophically fail.
Several factors are supportive of there being no future slope failure: It is encouraging to note that apparently no slumping or heaving ground movements have taken place at the toe of the slope. The boulder character and rough rock-head surface through which most of the movements have so far occurred could help in resisting a sliding action. The ground would appear to maintain a fairly stable temperature and moisture regime. However, it must be stressed that at the moment there is local dynamic situation, with distant aftershock and potential amplification effects still occurring that may lead to a local disaster.
Shared by Dr John Mock
Original Source: http://www.istructe.org/EEFIT/files/Atabad%20Landslide.pdf